His slumbering bat down the stretch is all the Sox got to see, but he’s projected for almost 60 extra-base hits if he doesn’t deliver, the club lacks the depth to adapt. Player Who Could Disappoint: The surgically repaired Garcia managed seven quality starts in nine turns last fall he won’t match that rate of success this year, so Rios is the obvious candidate. 492 with 26 homers, but that’s a median projection you can reasonably expect more if he’s all the way back, and the open DH slot might give him a few days and ways to avoid blowing out one joint or another. Player Who Could Surprise: A healthy Carlos Quentin is already projected to slug. The hitting portion of being a DH is non-optional, yet that’s what the Sox are probably stuck with if they settle for Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay. And the thing about that 2005 plan… did they really have to follow the part about getting a leadoff hitter who doesn’t get on base? I see your Podzilla and raise you a Juan Pierre. If Rios continues to sleep-walk his way through the South Side portion of his career, he’ll be the most expensive mistake ever made involving revocable waivers. Why They Might Not Win: If Jake Peavy breaks down, the rotation starts to look a lot less impressive. Power up the middle? With Alex Rios in center and Gordon Beckham moving to second to join shortstop Alexei Ramirez and catcher A.J. Putz and the emergence of Matt Thornton to support Bobby Jenks, check. A bullpen stocked with multiple closers? With the addition of J.J. That was Orlando Hernandez then, and it’s Freddy Garcia now. Why They Might Win: They’ve scrupulously followed the formula that worked in 2005 in assembling their 2010 team: a rotation so good that a former ace ranks as the fifth starter.
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It’s a long way until Opening Day, so that’s not quite the same thing as saying that we predict the division will be won with an under-.500 record, but all these teams have problems, and if the 1973 New York Mets (82-79) or the 2005 Padres (82-80) are worried about their status as history’s most feeble division winners, that’s understandable.
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Last year’s projections suggested that the division would be as tight as ever, but if truth seems to keep upping the ante on fiction, leave it to PECOTA to try to trump that by delivering what would be a logistical disaster for the postseason: a three-way tie between the likely contenders, with the Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers all initially being projected for 80-82 records.